Wilmington Mortgage with Tyler Cralle
Wilmington Mortgage
Breaking down the top stories impacting mortgage rates in Wilmington Mortgage in 15 minutes or less... wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Episodes
Ep. 103 | Rates Fall as the Trade Deficit Rises to a 16-Month High
Rates edged lower Tuesday as the U.S. trade deficit jumped to a 16-month high. That could actually contain some good news for bonds, potentially signaling strong foreign demand for dollars—and possibly more overseas demand for U.S. debt.But Ray Dalio offered a warning, arguing that Asian demand for Treasuries may be weakening as China continues to unwind its holdings and Japan looks to bring more money home. We also break down Nick Timiraos’ latest look at the Federal Reserve and why ending forward guidance may be much easier said than done. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 102. | The First Good Day for Rates in Two Weeks
Rates finally caught a break, posting their first good day in nearly two weeks as fixed-income investors locked in higher yields, the Treasury purchased $6 billion in Treasuries, and Fed officials floated the possibility of skipping a rate hike at the next meeting. Meanwhile, the economic data remained relatively strong, with continuing jobless claims falling to a three-year low and manufacturing activity dipping only slightly while remaining near four-year highs. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 101 | Bond Markets Slowed as Consumer Confidence Fell to a 12-Year Low
A somewhat quiet day in the bond market still gave investors plenty to think about. Consumer confidence fell to a 12-year low, while job openings dropped to their lowest level since the spring, adding fresh questions about the strength of the economy and labor market.We also look at growing concerns surrounding the yen carry trade and whether it could create more volatility in U.S. Treasuries. Robin Brooks pushes back on that theory, arguing that the correlation between the yen and the bond market simply doesn’t appear to be there. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 100 | Rates Continue The Historic Rise
Rates continue their historic rise, but the big question is why. Is massive AI spending overheating parts of the economy, or are investors demanding higher yields because of the nation’s $40 trillion debt and concerns over fiscal discipline? Or is it a combination of both? Adding another wrinkle, the 2-year Treasury yield is rising faster than the 10-year, putting concerns about an inverted yield curve—and what it could signal for the economy—back on the table. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 99 | The Bond Market and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Days
Mortgage rates have skyrocketed over the last two days as several major concerns collided in the bond market. Wednesday’s sell-off was driven by stronger economic data, a disappointing Treasury auction, and concerns over a possible diesel ban. The pressure continued Thursday as a solid labor market report and new home sales jumping to a 2026 high reinforced the economy’s resilience. We break down how stronger growth, persistent inflation concerns, and the growing debt debate are converging to push Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 98 | Another Day of No News is Good News
Mortgage rates moved lower as a relatively quiet day gave bond markets little reason to sell. We did get some manufacturing data and a small Treasury auction, but neither was enough to shake markets, making this another case where “no news is good news” for rates.We also look at Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks and his thoughts on how the U.S. can address its growing debt problem. Plus, a new study challenges conventional thinking about long-term interest rates, suggesting that r* — the so-called neutral rate — may no longer be the primary driver of longer-term Treasury yields. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 97 | A Boring Monday is Good For Rates
Bond yields fell on a quiet Monday as markets digested the Federal Reserve’s continued hawkish tone following last week’s rate hike. With little economic data to drive trading, rates managed to drift lower despite the Fed maintaining its focus on inflation.We also dive into the increasingly confusing AI debate, as investors try to determine whether the massive investment boom is fueling sustainable economic growth or creating new risks for markets and the broader economy. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 96 | Rates Fall After Stellar Press Conference from Kevin Warsh
Mortgage rates fell following the Federal Reserve’s rate hike, as Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a press conference that helped calm the bond market and sent Treasury yields lower. Warsh emphasized price stability while giving investors some reassurance about the path ahead for monetary policy.Elsewhere, pending home sales posted a modest increase, while initial jobless claims fell below 200,000, signaling continued strength in the labor market. The housing supply side was less encouraging, with residential construction continuing to decline as elevated rates and affordability challenges weigh on builders. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 95 | It's Fed Week and the 10-Year Yield Just Crossed 5%
Mortgage rates came under renewed pressure as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5% for the first time since 2023. Bond vigilantes continue to push yields higher amid concerns about rising government debt, persistent inflation, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s increasingly combative stance toward the bond market. All of this comes as investors prepare for a major Federal Reserve rate decision that could set the tone for rates moving forward. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 94 | Rates Continue Rise as the Global Bond Sell-Off Continues
Rates continued to climb as the global bond sell-off intensified, with yields across many major economies reaching levels not seen in roughly 18 years. Rising tensions in the Middle East, including new U.S. strikes on Iran, added even more pressure. Domestically, job openings rose less than expected while manufacturing activity cooled slightly in August. One piece of good news: the House passed a stopgap funding bill that would push the government funding deadline into December. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 93 | Rates Rise on Fighting in the Middle East
Mortgage rates moved higher as the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in August, adding fresh uncertainty to an already volatile bond market. We also break down Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s pushback against the bond vigilantes and why his aggressive defense of the administration’s bond-market strategy may have done more harm than good. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 92 | Rates Unchanged After a Quiet Thursday, But Friday Could Be Different
Mortgage rates were basically unchanged on a quiet Thursday, as jobless claims dipped slightly and several Fed officials spoke from the Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets remained relatively calm, but that could change quickly.Friday has the potential to be much more impactful, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking in Wyoming followed by the annual nonfarm payroll revisions. Those revisions have been substantial over the past two years and could reshape the market’s view of the labor market—and the path for interest rates. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 91 | Rates Fall Along with Oil Prices & Consumer Confidence
Mortgage rates fell as the outlook for the war with Iran shifted, sending oil prices lower and giving the bond market some relief. Consumer confidence also dropped to its lowest level since January, while home-price growth accelerated to a 10-month high but continued to trail inflation. Meanwhile, the trade war with Canada is heating up quickly, and we look at why it could ultimately have an impact on the U.S. mortgage market. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 90 | It was Scott Bessent Monday as Trump Started a Multi-Front Trade War
It was Scott Bessent Monday, as Treasury news dominated the day from start to finish. The morning began with reports that the Treasury could tap its General Account to buy more bonds, while Bessent’s afternoon press conference outlined the administration’s plan to intensify economic pressure on Iran. Meanwhile, President Trump reignited trade tensions on multiple fronts, announcing new tariff moves targeting both Canada and China. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 89 | 30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 19-Year High
Rates moved higher on today’s show, with all eyes on the 30-year Treasury yield as it climbed to a 19-year high amid growing concerns among global bond investors about rising government deficits and persistent inflation. We also break down a strong New York manufacturing report, with activity hitting a four-year high, while homebuilder confidence edged higher in August but remained near an 11-month low as elevated mortgage rates and home prices continue to weigh on demand. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 88 | Mortgage Rates Fall Along With The Odds of a Fed Rate Hike in September
Mortgage rates moved lower after a better-than-expected inflation report showed producer prices holding steady in July. The encouraging inflation data has bond investors rethinking expectations for a potential Fed rate hike in September, especially as the labor market sends mixed signals. Friday’s weak jobs report pointed toward a slowdown, while jobless claims remain near historic lows. We also break down a disappointing 30-year Treasury auction and what it could mean for rates going forward. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 87 | Rates Unchanged Despite Strong Treasury Auction
Mortgage rates were basically unchanged today as early optimism surrounding the war with Iran faded by the afternoon. There was some good news for bonds, however, with a strong 3-year Treasury auction and a solid household debt report. On the housing front, the news wasn't as encouraging, with existing-home sales falling to a four-month low. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 86 | Mortgage Rates Rise on Oil & Debt Concerns
Today’s episode looks at growing pressure across energy, debt and monetary policy. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983, while concerns are mounting over the massive amount of debt being issued by both governments and the private sector. We also discuss President Trump denying that he frequently speaks with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and preview the inflation reports that could drive markets and mortgage rates in the days ahead. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 85 | A Great Day for Markets is Great for Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates moved lower for a second straight day as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled the U.S. may be close to an agreement that would restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about global energy supplies and helping push bond yields lower. Oil prices continued to retreat, giving markets another reason to breathe a little easier.We also break down the latest JOLTS report, which showed the labor market remains resilient with job openings unexpectedly rising, a sign that hiring demand is still holding up. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks climbed to fresh record highs as investors welcomed improving geopolitical headlines and continued confidence in the economy.In today’s episode, we’ll explain why mortgage rates improved despite a still-strong labor market, what a potential Strait of Hormuz agreement could mean for inflation and interest rates, and what homebuyers should be watching next. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 84 | Mortgage Rates Improve as the US Helps Japan
Mortgage rates got a boost from a calmer geopolitical backdrop as investors embraced signs that the White House is pursuing diplomacy with Iran rather than further military escalation. At the same time, fears that Japan could dump U.S. Treasuries to support the yen eased after Washington and Tokyo unveiled a coordinated plan for the United States to buy yen, helping stabilize the Japanese currency after it sank to a 40-year low.The economic data was surprisingly encouraging as well. Manufacturing activity surged to its highest level in four years, fueled by stronger hiring and expanding factory output, while one of the report's biggest surprises was a decline in inflation pressures. That combination of stronger growth, improving employment, and easing price pressures is about as good as bond investors could have hoped for.In today's episode, we break down why mortgage rates improved, what the U.S.-Japan currency agreement means for Treasury markets, why the manufacturing report was so impressive, and whether this favorable backdrop can continue in the weeks ahead. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 83 | I'm Back! Just in time for Fed Day and Falling Rates
I am back from my one-month sabbatical just in time to discuss what the Fed could do for rates and why rates are down over the last three days. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 82 | Rates Plummet Along with Oil
Rates plummeted to a 6-week low as oil prices continued to fall thanks to more activity in the Strait of Hormuz. In other news, President Trump canceled the bill signing for a bipartisan housing bill, and new home sales fell to the lowest level since January. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 81 | Rates Basically Unchanged as Iran Negotiations Stall
Rates were basically unchanged as Iran negotiations seem to be going nowhere. In other news, Russia is trying to pressure Belarus to get involved in its war with Ukraine, and the Treasury auction for 2-year notes was better than expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 80 | Rates Rise on Global Unrest
Rates rise on murkiness about the Iran peace deal and the announcement that Keir Starmer is resigning as Prime Minister, which marks the 7th PM in a decade. In other news, Alan Greenspan, the longest-serving Federal Reserve Chairman who was appointed by four presidents, died at the age of 100 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 79 | Rates Rise After Warsh's First Meeting as Chair
Mortgage rates moved higher following Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, though it would be difficult to place the blame solely on the new Fed chief. The market's attention quickly shifted to the Fed's updated rate projections, where nine of the nineteen policymakers now expect at least one rate hike this year, up from none just three months ago. Investors were clearly disappointed by the more hawkish outlook.Still, there was some encouraging news for the bond market. Warsh emphasized the Federal Reserve's commitment to price stability, a message that should resonate with bond investors who remain focused on inflation risks.Outside of monetary policy, the economic data was largely positive. Pending home sales posted their strongest monthly gain since September 2024, signaling renewed activity in the housing market, while retail sales came in well above expectations, suggesting consumers continue to spend despite ongoing economic uncertainties. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 78 | Mortgage Rates Fall to One Month Lows as Oil Prices Plummet
As signs emerged that the Iran war may be winding down, financial markets responded positively. Oil prices plunged, stocks climbed to new record highs, and bond yields moved lower, helped further by a surprisingly strong 20-year Treasury auction that drew solid investor demand.The news wasn't entirely positive, however. The housing sector showed renewed signs of weakness as housing starts fell to their lowest level in five years, highlighting the challenges builders continue to face despite improving financial conditions.Tyler breaks down what the shifting geopolitical landscape means for mortgage rates, the bond market, and the outlook for housing. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 77 | Rates Mostly Unchanged on Murky Iran Deal
While bond futures fell more than 6 basis points to start the day, they closed almost back to Friday's close after uncertainty about the Iran deal began to emerge. In other news, Homebuilder confidence fell to the second-lowest level in the last nine months and manufacturing activity slowed more than expected in New York. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 76 | Rates Plummet on Possible Iran Deal
Rates fell after President Donald Trump announced a possible deal with Iran, producer prices rose like CPI because of energy spikes, and the 30-year treasury auction was not very good... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 75 | Bonds Unfazed Despite Inflation Hitting a 3-Year High
Inflation rose to 4.2% in May, the highest annual rate in three years, but the report wasn't quite as alarming as the headline number suggested. Nearly 60% of the monthly increase came from energy prices, as higher oil and gasoline costs continued to ripple through the economy.President Trump praised the report, saying he "loved the inflation," arguing that most of the increase was tied to energy rather than broad-based price pressures. While there is some truth to that interpretation, the comment could become a political liability heading into November as voters continue to grapple with higher prices.Meanwhile, bond markets largely looked past the inflation report. A strong 10-year Treasury auction helped steady yields, limiting the upward pressure on mortgage rates despite the hottest inflation reading since 2023. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 74 | Rates Fall Despite Concerns in the Middle East & with Social Security
Existing-home sales reached the highest level in 2026, tensions rise in the Middle East, and a new report says Social Security is going to be insolvent sooner than originally thought. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 73| Rates Rise on Hot Jobs Report
Rates jumped on Friday after the monthly non-farm payroll report came in much hotter than expected. However, there is some good news as consumer inflation expectations were better than expected and the U.S. government could run a slightly smaller budget deficit in 2026. Looking ahead, it's a very busy week for economic data with two inflation reports and an ECB decision. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 72 | Rates Fall on Rise in Jobless Claims & Geopoliticals
Rates continued the roller coaster with a slight dip on Thursday, thanks to a higher-than-expected jump in jobless claims. In other news, Zelensky sends an open letter to Putin to end the war, Hezbollah rejects the ceasefire with Israel, and Elon is on the verge of becoming a trillionaire. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 71 | Rates Rise on Drone Strikes & StrengtheningLabor Market
Rates rose on Wednesday after Ukraine hit Russia and Iran hit Kuwait & Bahrain. In other news, private payrolls saw the biggest gain in 16 months, bond traders are pricing in a rate hike before the end of the year, and sellers are delisting their homes at the fastest rate in 13 years...strengthng This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 70 | Slow Start to Jobs Week with Mixed Data
A new report shows a strengthening manufacturing sector in May, job openings jump to a 17-month high while quits fall to a 6-year low, inflation rises in Europe as energy prices soar, and Trump and Netanyahu disagree on how to end the Iran war... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 69 | Rate Fall for the Third Straight Day After a Smorgasbord of Reports
Rates fall for the third day in a row after inflation data shows price growth hitting a three-year high, Economic growth revised downward in Q1; durable goods orders pop in April; jobless claims hit a 5-week high; and new home sales fall more than expected in April. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 68 | Rates Continue to Fall Despite Geopolitical Concerns
The European Central Bank released a concerning report about the impact of the war in the Middle East, a troubling report says Putin may expand the war into Europe, and consumer confidence holds strong in May despite headwinds This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 67 | Rates are Falling Heading Into 3-Day Weekend
Positive news out of the Middle East causes rates to fall for just the second time in two weeks. Residential construction is mostly positive in April, the House overwhelmingly passes a Housing Bill, manufacturing falls in Philly, and the FOMC minutes show talks of a possible rate hike. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 66 | Rates are Rising For Two Main Reasons
Mortgage rates continue to rise as bond yields rise across the globe. Robin Brooks wrote on his Substack that bond yields are rising for temporary reasons (Iran war) and for structural problems (rising debt issuance among almost all nations. The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran and the US are showing no signs of moving any closer to a deal to end the war. The UN announces slowing economic growth for the global economy. And pending home sales rise in April, but not as much as expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 65 | Bond Vigilantes Move Markets
It's been a rough two days for the bond market, with yields up 16 points in the last two trading days as bond investors are worried that the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's dovish approach to monetary policy could cause inflation to spike. In other news: Homebuilder confidence rose more than expected in May, and homebuilders face an increase in lawsuits, which can raise the cost of home building. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 64 | Rates We're Down on Thursday, I Think...
We saw a slight drop in rates on Thursday as markets reacted to President Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping in China, retail sales rising in April but not as much as inflation, and jobless claims rising for the second straight week but remain close to two-year lows... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 63 | We Got a New Fed Chair!
The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Federal Reserve Chairman, producer prices skyrocketed in April, bond investors are worried about inflation, and the 30-year treasury auction was not very good... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 62 | A Day of Bad Reports, But It Could Have Been Worse...
Uncertainty surrounding the British Prime Minister pushed the 30-year gilt yield to near a 30-year high, while April’s CPI report showed energy prices continuing to surge, sending consumer inflation to nearly a three-year high. Meanwhile, the Treasury’s latest 10-year auction saw weak demand, adding more pressure to bond markets, though a new household debt report suggested consumers are still managing debt responsibly. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 61 | Rates Rise As Ceasefire is on "Life Support"
Rates moved higher as uncertainty in the Middle East intensified after President Trump called Iran’s latest counteroffer “totally unacceptable” and warned the ceasefire was on “life support,” raising fears of renewed tensions and higher oil prices.Meanwhile, a proposal to suspend the federal gas tax is gaining traction in Washington, while existing-home sales increased in April, though the gain came in below economists’ expectations. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 60 | Uncertainty About Iran Causes Rates to Rise
Rates pulled back slightly on Thursday as Iran had not agreed to talks about a longer ceasefire, jobless claims rose slightly from last week's 7-year low, and mid and long-term consumer inflation expectations held steady despite a rise in short-term expectations. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 59 | Possible Peace in the Middle East is Welcome News for Mortgage Rates
As reports of a possible peace deal between Iran and the US showed promise, oil prices fell, equity prices rose, and mortgage rates fell. In other news, private payrolls saw their best month since January 2025... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 58 | A lot of Data, But Not a Lot of Impact on Rates
Job openings fell slightly more than expected in March, but quits rose, giving us a mixed JOLTS report. The trade deficit rose slightly more than expected and the service sector fell slightly more than expected. While we got a lot of data, none of it really moved rates with the 10-year and 30-year both seeing a small drop. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 57 | Iran Attacks, Rates Rise
On Sunday, President Trump said he would protect certain ships in the Strait of Hormuz to bring some stability to the region. In response, Iran attacked US ships and UAE facilities, causing more instability, which caused oil prices to rise, which in turn pushed rates up. In other news, Jeanine Pirro decided not to appeal a judicial ruling against her subpoenas of the Federal Reserve, and whatever you do, do not bet on prediction markets unless you know what you are doing... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 56 | Rates Fall as Oil Markets Calm Down
It was a busy day for economic data! Economic growth was hotter than expected in the first quarter, inflation came in hotter than expected, and jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1969. However, none of this data moved the rates. Rates fell because oil markets calmed down after a spike on Wednesday. In other news, debt hit 100% of GDP and while that is not an issue now, it will be sooner than most people think... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 55 | Rates Jump on Fed Day. But Don't Blame Them, Blame Oil Prices
The Fed announced they were holding rates for the third straight meeting. However, there were four dissents. Stephen Mirran wanted a rate cut, but the other 3 were because they weren't happy with the statement. Housing starts jumped to a 14-month high, and durable goods orders were better than expected. However, none of that caused rates to jump; that was because of rising oil prices... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com
Ep. 54 | Rates Rise Along with Gas Prices
Gas prices hit a 4-year high as Iran and the US seem no closer to a peace deal, and Iran is struggling to find somewhere to store its oil as the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues to work. The UAE announced they were leaving OPEC so they can produce more oil, consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped to a 6-month high, and home price growth fell to an almost three-year low. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com